Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,630,051$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(5.48 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,795,493.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 145.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,795,493.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $196,763$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(4.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,644.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 76.3)}}\) (asimptote \(182,644.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,907,715$ on 2020-09-16

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $680,931$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(3.62 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{748,897.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 127.4)}}\) (asimptote \(748,897.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $71,978$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(5.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76,168.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 112.2)}}\) (asimptote \(76,168.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,750$ on 2020-09-16

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,466$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(4.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,698.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 137.1)}}\) (asimptote \(117,698.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,198$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(109 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,667.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,667.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,481$ on 2020-09-16

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $141,852$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(3.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(86.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,787.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 65.1)}}\) (asimptote \(123,787.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,244$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(93.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,987.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,987.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,196$ on 2020-09-16

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $69,660$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(2.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{72,107.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 127.9)}}\) (asimptote \(72,107.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,102$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(96.3 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,383.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 126.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,383.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $47,575$ on 2020-09-16

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $105,521$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(5.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,699.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.1)}}\) (asimptote \(123,699.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,009$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(170 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,036.6}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 182.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,036.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,621$ on 2020-09-16

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $82,924$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(2.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,910.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 127.5)}}\) (asimptote \(87,910.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,009$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(157 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,073.1}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 109.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,073.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,353$ on 2020-09-16

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $59,516$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(226 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,241.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 178.8)}}\) (asimptote \(90,241.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $649$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{775.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 160.3)}}\) (asimptote \(775.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,115$ on 2020-09-16

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Guatemala recovered 73%
El Salvador recovered 46%
Belize recovered 20%
Panama recovered 4%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,163$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,109.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 124.0)}}\) (asimptote \(30,109.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $796$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(30.5 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{862.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 121.0)}}\) (asimptote \(862.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,407$ on 2020-09-16

Belize⮸

Population $397,628$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,536$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(0.362 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,683.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 158.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,683.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $19$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(0.0197 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $821$ on 2020-09-16