Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,630,051$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(5.48 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,795,493.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 145.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,795,493.4\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $196,763$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(4.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,644.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 76.3)}}\) (asimptote \(182,644.7\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,907,715$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $680,931$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(3.62 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{748,897.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 127.4)}}\) (asimptote \(748,897.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $71,978$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(5.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76,168.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 112.2)}}\) (asimptote \(76,168.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,750$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $103,466$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(4.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,698.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 137.1)}}\) (asimptote \(117,698.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,198$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(109 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,667.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,667.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,481$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $141,852$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(3.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(86.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,787.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 65.1)}}\) (asimptote \(123,787.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,244$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(93.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,987.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,987.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,196$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $69,660$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(2.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{72,107.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 127.9)}}\) (asimptote \(72,107.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,102$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(96.3 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,383.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 126.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,383.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $47,575$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $105,521$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(5.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,699.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.1)}}\) (asimptote \(123,699.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,009$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(170 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,036.6}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 182.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,036.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,621$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $82,924$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(2.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,910.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 127.5)}}\) (asimptote \(87,910.3\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,009$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(157 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,073.1}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 109.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,073.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,353$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $59,516$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(226 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,241.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 178.8)}}\) (asimptote \(90,241.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $649$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{775.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 160.3)}}\) (asimptote \(775.2\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $37,115$ on 2020-09-16